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According to the EBRD Ukraine's economy will grow in 2016.

According to the EBRD Ukraine’s economy will grow in 2016.

Posted in News.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development retained the growth forecast for Ukraine at the level of 2% in 2016 and 2% – in 2017.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts that Ukraine’s economy will return to growth in 2016 against the background of the previous macroeconomic adjustment and rebalancing, supported by structural reforms. This is stated in the annual report of the organization on the development of the region.
EBRD Experts remind that Ukraine’s economy shrank by 9.9% in 2015 after a 6.6% contraction in 2014. In dollar terms, GDP decreased from approximately $ 180 billion in 2013 to $ 90 billion in 2015. In the second half of 2015 the economy bottomed out, the report said.
Consumer inflation in 2015 averaged 48.7%. In annual terms, inflation slowed to 43.3% in December 2015, with a 60.9% year on year in April 2015.
Due to stabilize the exchange rate, weak domestic demand, low world commodity prices and effective fiscal and monetary policy, inflationary pressures, the Bank expects to decrease over the next 12 months.
Hryvnia depreciated against the US dollar for a total of 67% in 2014-2015, and a further 10% in the first quarter of 2016, putting pressure on the real, financial and public sectors. Tight capital controls introduced in 2014-2015 remains in force.
Ongoing adjustment of external costs and gosbyudzheta.Defitsit current account in 2015 fell almost to zero to 9% of GDP in 2013.
The volume of net private investment depends on the resumption of the IMF program payments, political stability and the pace of reforms in the banking sector and the energy sector, privatization, and the rule of law.
Continued transformation of the banking sector: the number of licensed banks has decreased from 180 in January 2014 to 116 in February 2016, the property has improved transparency, monitoring of credit related persons was tightened, enhanced independence of the National Bank of Ukraine. But the real sector access to credit remains limited.
Official financing is still important for the further build-up of international reserves, which amounted to $ 12.7 billion (approximately 3 months of imports) in March 2016. The total budget deficit of Naftogaz, and decreased from 10% of GDP in 2014 to nearly 3% in 2015. The depreciation of the hryvnia has led to an increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP ratio from 40% in 2013 to almost 80% in 2015, though debt restructuring Eurobond, implemented in 2015 helped to reduce the risk of non-repayment. EBRD kept the growth forecast for Ukraine to 2% in 2016 and by 2% in 2017.
Earlier, a key creditor of Ukraine International Monetary Fund has retained the forecast growth of the Ukrainian economy by the end of 2016 at 1.5% with inflation of 15.1%. This is stated in the updated report of the Fund on the development of the economies of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states, including Ukraine. Also, the fund kept its forecast for 2017 – 2.5% GDP growth with inflation at 11%.

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