European Bank for Reconstruction and Development downgraded the outlook for the fall of the Ukrainian economy up to 5%
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has downgraded the outlook for the fall of the gross domestic product of Ukraine in 2015 to 5% in comparison with its latest estimate of 3% in September last year. This is stated in the publication of the bank «Regional economic outlook».
The document stated that Ukraine’s state debt in relation to GDP is growing rapidly, fiscal and quasi-fiscal pressure remains high and the banking sector is suffering from an outflow of deposits and the devaluation of the hryvnia.
In their view, necessary, but painful economic reforms in Ukraine in 2015 will continue with the support of the International Monetary Fund.
«But the risks of external refinancing, uncertainty about the scope and terms of the international financial assistance and the damage to infrastructure and productive capacity in the Donbass will restrain growth in 2015 which will result in the continued economic downturn,» – according to the EBRD.
The fall in GDP in Ukraine in 2014 the bank’s experts estimated at 7.5% which is better than their original projections.
Earlier it was reported that the World Bank has lowered the estimate of the fall of Ukraine’s GDP in 2014 to 8.2% in comparison with its latest estimate of 8% in October. Therefore, experts Bank downgraded the forecast decline in GDP of Ukraine in 2015 to 2.3% from 1%, estimating the rate of economic recovery in 2016-2017, respectively, 3.5% and 3.8%.
The Bank estimates that the current account deficit of balance of payments of Ukraine in 2014-2015 will be 2.7% of GDP in 2016 will increase slightly to 2.9% of GDP, and next year will return to the level of 2.7% of GDP.