The National Bank has named the cause of the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016.
According to estimates of the National Bank in the first quarter of 2016 Ukraine’s GDP showed a slight increase compared to the same period in 2015.
In the first quarter of 2016 a slight increase in GDP on an annualized basis will be fixed, says in the National Bank of Ukraine.
“In the first quarter of 2016 will be seen further recovery in economic activity, in particular, a slight GDP growth year on year, as expected,” – said in an inflationary NBU report.
The regulator said that since mid-February, oil prices rose on average by 35%, while the price of oil has provided significant support to world prices for non-energy commodities, including steel, the price of which in the first quarter rose almost 30% .
Further dynamics of prices of steel, as the NBU believes will depend on developments in the steel industry in China. If implementation of the reorientation of the economy of China’s program to the domestic market will be successful, it will have a significant impact on steel prices.
Active anti-dumping duties the EU and the US in respect of certain countries, especially China and Russia, as stressed by the NBU, will also keep prices from further decline. In 2016, expected steel prices to stabilize after the current increase, and will grow by about 5% in 2017. In addition, according to the NBU estimates, the 2016/2017 marketing year, there will be a slight increase in world prices for grain due to the expected poor harvest in the 2016/2017 marketing year compared with previous periods.
At the same time, as the NBU notes improvement in external price conditions may be offset by the deterioration of business expectations and investor sentiment due to rising political uncertainty in the first quarter of 2016 and the delay in the resumption of cooperation with the IMF.
National Bank keeps the forecast of real GDP growth at 1.1% in 2016 and 3% – in 2017. Coma, the NBU keeps inflation forecast 12% in 2016 and 8% – in 2017.
Such inflation forecasts, according to the regulator, consistent with the objectives of its monetary policy.
National Bank publishes quarterly inflation reports, starting in April 2015.
As reported, according to the State Statistics Service, GDP decline in 2015 accelerated to 9.9% compared to 6.6% in 2014. The Statistical Office has not yet released official data on the dynamics of GDP in the first quarter of 2016.
