The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine forecasts GDP growth of 2% and inflation 12% in 2016.
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has developed an optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the development of the situation in 2016, while according to the optimistic scenario, GDP growth in the period amounted to 2%, and inflation – 12%, and in the worst case scenario GDP will decrease by 0.3% with inflation of 14.7 %.
This is stated in the Government Decree №558 dated August 5.
Under the optimistic scenario assumes that in 2017 GDP growth will accelerate to 3.5% during deceleration in inflation to 8.1%, and in the next two years to stabilize at 4% with inflation 5,5-5,2%.
The pessimistic scenario assumes that in 2017 GDP will grow by only 1% with inflation of 10.3%, but in 2018-2019 it grew by 3%, inflation will slow down to 7,6-5,8%.
The state budget for 2015 is built on the optimistic scenario of the situation, providing for a fall in GDP of 5.5% with inflation of 26.7%.
At the same time, the IMF and the government on the first revision of the program EFF Extended Fund downgraded the fall of GDP this year to 9%, inflation – to 45.8%. National Bank predicts 9.5% GDP decline in the inflation rate of 48%.
The country’s economy in 2014 dropped by 6.8%, while consumer prices rose by 24.9%. In the first quarter of 2015. GDP decline accelerated to 17.2% from 14.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
The optimistic scenario assumes that the gross GDP in 2016 will amount to 2.262 trillion USD, the average salary – 4.86 thousand. UAH, while its growth in real terms – by 2.3%, the unemployment rate – 10.4%.
According to him, exports in 2016 will grow by 7.1% – to $ 53.88 billion, imports – by 7.3%, to $ 55.45 billion.
According to the pessimistic scenario, the nominal GDP in 2016 will be equal to 2.246 trillion USD nominal salary – 4.82 thousand. UAH, which corresponds to its reduction in real terms by 0.5%, unemployment rate – 10.8%.
At the same time, in this scenario the negative balance of foreign trade will be less – $ 1.07 billion: exports increased by 3.8%, imports – by 3.1%.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine expects that the acceleration of economic growth in both scenarios, the negative balance of foreign trade will continue to grow, but at a much more optimistic rapidly – to $ 3.27 billion by 2019, while the pessimistic – up to $ 1.64 billion.
