The IMF expects Ukraine’s GDP growth of 2% in 2016.
In 2015 GDP will shrink by about 5.5%, with inflation up to 27%. Restoration of GDP growth to 2% is expected in 2016.
Real gross domestic product of Ukraine is expected to decline in 2015 by approximately 5.5%, with inflation up to 27% in response to the devaluation of the hryvnia and the increase in tariffs for gas and heating, predicts the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
«Economic prospects for Ukraine will improve in the medium term. It is expected recovery of real GDP growth to 2% in 2016 and accelerate to 4% in the medium term» – said in a press release of the Fund.
According to the IMF, the current account deficit should fall to around 1.5% of GDP this year and stabilize at around 1.25% of GDP in 2016-2018, respectively, based on the reduced competitiveness.
The Fund expects the fall in inflation by the end of 2018 to about 4-6% (mid-single).
As noted in the press release, with substantial international assistance gross international reserves will be gradually restored and will increase to 3.3 months of import coverage by the end of 2015 and the end of 2018 will cover almost 83% of short-term debt.
According to the estimates of the Fund, and the devaluation of the hryvnia treasury bonds will lead this year to increase the debt of the public sector to 94% of GDP and an increase in external debt to 158% of GDP. However, due to the debt operations and budget management public debt is expected to decline to about 71% of GDP in 2020.
