The NBU forecasts GDP growth, lower inflation and balance of payments surplus countries by 2017.
The National Bank of Ukraine presented the inflation report which gave his vision for the development of economy of Ukraine by the end of 2016. The forecast is built on several assumptions: the freezing of the conflict in the east, the fulfillment of obligations to the IMF and receive full funding, reducing the deficit, «Naftogaz» to 5.6 billion USD in 2016, moderately tight fiscal policy of the government and the increase in tariffs to the level of their cost to the 2017.
In addition, attention is paid to external factors such as the fall in commodity prices, which affected the cost of consumer goods, the debt crisis in Greece, the forecasts of the World Bank in terms of the global economy.
If all goes according to the assumptions of the NBU, then from the second quarter is expected gradual recovery of economic growth (compared with the previous quarter), primarily due to net exports and download the released capacity.
The growth in investment demand could begin in the second half. Here NBU expects to strengthen the effect of import substitution and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in the east. «Due to the significant weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate in the previous period, the import will remain quite weak. The resumption of growth in real GDP during the year is projected already in 2016 – by 3%,» – says the National Bank.
In 2015, due to the effect of the statistical base, projected fall in GDP of 7.5%. The regulator expects that domestic consumption will recover slowly enough investment demand will start to recover in the second half due to the development of import-substituting industries and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in the East, and the positive contribution of net exports is due to the general decline in imports.
NBU predicts a gradual slowdown in inflation. Consumer price index by the end of 2015 should reach 30.1% (24.9% in 2014). In 2016, this figure should be reduced to 13%. At the same time, core inflation should rise for the year to 25%, and in 2016 reduced to 7.6%. Non-core inflation will be 34.8% and 18% in 2015 and 2016 respectively.
According to the NBU, several factors affect the decline in inflation: anti-inflationary monetary policy, reducing the impact of the devaluation (maximum during the first two quarters), the decline in inflation expectations, reducing the impact of fuel price hike, low domestic demand, the stabilization of world prices for grain and other commodities low, low inflation in trading partners.
In 2015, the consolidated balance of payments is projected surplus of $ 2 billion, in 2016 is expected to further increase to $ 4.7 billion.
In this case, the NBU predicts a reduction of current account deficit to 1-1.5% of GDP (-1.1 billion dollars this year and -0.8 billion dollars. in 2016) due to the devaluation and weak domestic consumer demand.
The surplus in the financial account as the next two years ($ 3.1 billion in 2015 and $ 5.6 billion in 2016) is expected to see through the deferral of payments on the public evroobligations and receipt of significant funds from official financing. It is assumed that the overall improvement of the investment climate stimulates the flow of private capital and in 2016 the NBU expects to see growth of foreign direct investment to $ 2 billion.
